Can We Stop Saying Avatar is Bigger than Star Wars?

Nice post by Whitney Matheson in her usatoday Pop Candy blog on the value of adjusting for inflation to get an accurate comparison of film box office.

The fact is, if you not only adjust for average ticket price inflation, but also factor in the percentage of Avatar's box office coming from higher ticket priced 3D screenings, on a worldwide box office basis, Avatar would need another $1.3 billion to beat Titanic's record (approximately the amount of Haiti's total expenditures in 2008 per the CIA's World Factbook) and $700 million more to beat Star Wars: Ep IV A New Hope.

Adjusting for ticket price inflation is no easy task.  On older films you have to adjust up from rentals to box office, adjust each re-release separately and, when possible, factor in the impact of higher than average ticket prices (for roadshow or 3D pricing).  And when foreign box office is such a big swing factor (which it is in the case of Avatar where it makes up about 70% of Avatar's total worldwide box office to date), there are more variables at play.  Using an estimated $7.35 average ticket price in the U.S. for 2010, adjusting for a $9 3D ticket price on 70% of Avatar's domestic box office, adjusting 50% of The Birth of a Nation's domestic box office for an average $1 roadshow ticket price and using U.S. average ticket prices to calculate foreign box office - the graphs above more accurately reflect the phenomenal success of Avatar compared to other cinema giants.  It's great but it's not yet even in the Top 10!

Nature-Caused Disasters In Life and In the Movies

Mother Nature (or God, if you believe Pat Robertson) can certainly wreak a lot of damage.  This morning Haiti got hit with a 6.1 magnitude aftershock (check out USGS) and here in California we're on the verge of flooding.

People react to disasters in many ways as Jon Stewart showed 1/14/2010.  But the devil is in the details, as can be seen in this science blog.

So what are the top grossing disaster films where Mother Nature is the villain (not human error as was the case in Titanic, the #1 disaster film of all-time) or aliens from outer space (as was the case in Independence Day, the #2 disaster film) and how do they compare with reality?

Top Five Nature-Caused Disaster Movies in All-Release Domestic Box Office

Equivalent 2008 $'s/(unadjusted $'s)  In Millions of $'s

1. Twister, 1996 $392.6/($241.7)
2. Earthquake, 1974 $306.4/($80.7)
3. The Perfect Storm, 2000 $243.3/($182.6)  Check out NOAA on the real cyclone
4. San Francisco, 1936 $220.4/($8.3)
5. Deep Impact, 1998 $215.0/($140.5).  Check out NASA on asteroids

Top Five Worst Nature Deaths by Cause 

1. Human Extinction would be the result of a two-mile wide asteroid  predicted every 10 million years. 
   
2. 830,000 deaths from the most murderous earthquake in Shansi, China 1556.  That earthquake was a Magnitude 8.0 versus Haiti's 7.0 quake 1/12/2010 with deaths now estimated as high as 100,000 to 200,000.
3. 300,000 to 500,000 deaths from the deadliest windstorm in the 20th century - a cyclone that hit Bangladesh, 1970.
4. 227,000 deaths from the deadliest Tsunami in 2004 caused by an underwater earthquake off the coast of Indonesia
5. 92,000 deaths from the deadliest volcano in Tambora, Indonesia 1815 primarily from the resulting famine.
   

Cecil B. DeMille Top 10

Musicals of the 1930s and 1940s including Gold Diggers of 1933

In his interview with George Lucas, David Bianculli asked "So why no Gold Diggers of 1933?  Well here it is, the # 8 musical film, in terms of domestic box office (adjusted for ticket price inflation), to be released in the 1930s with 1 Oscar nomination and 0 wins.   Of all musical films for which I have data, Gold Diggers of 1933 would come in at #57.  The top 5 are The Sound of Music (1965), Mary Poppins (1964), Grease (1978), My Fair Lady (1964) and This is the Army (1943).

Hope Innelli Top 10 Movie Picks

1.  Rebel Without A Cause, 1955.  Why?  This movie captured something so real and raw it invited us to see the world with the same sensitivity we did in our youth, when our innocence first began to fade.  There is a reason why Hollywood has made fortunes off of teen idols and the subject of teenage angst ever since.
2.  Bonnie and Clyde, 1967.  Why?  This raw, highly stylized film stayed with me for weeks after seeing it.  Its shockingly graphic violence mixed with sexual energy was incredibly brazen for its time.  Blood splatter may have later been elevated to an even finer art form by Tarantino and others, but it all started with this film.
3.  M*A*S*H, 1970.  Why?  This movie gave us a language with which to talk about war and those who wage it.  It introduced irreverence without taking the gravitas out of the subject.  Its relevance is still felt in the way we talk about the subject today in film, television, books and the news.
4.  The Godfather, 1972.  Why?  I can't tell if our endless fascination with crime bosses and their families made this film so popular or if it was this film that perpetuated our fascination.  As an Italian-American who resented the association my culture had with the mob, I resisted watching this and the other Godfather movies for years.  But once I was convinced to watch them all together in a marathon to beat all marathons I became a huge fan.  What an incredibly powerful and nuanced exploration of an inordinately complex aspect of the culture.
5.  Fatal Attraction, 1987.  Why?  Morality tales can be such guilty pleasures.  All that sensuality wrapped up permissively in a message.  I'm not sure anyone is really ever watching these for the message, but here both elements are equally riveting.  And Glenn Close gives us one of the most memorable villains of all time.  Her character is every cheating spouse's worst nightmare!
6.  Forrest Gump, 1994.  Why?  This gem of a film is totally original on every level.  I love it because it reminds us that all of the influences in our daily lives - large or small - somehow add up to the whole of who we are.  None of us is just passing through this world - we are impacting it and it is impacting us more than we can ever know.
7.  Toy Story, 1995.  Why?  While Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (the very first film I ever saw!) may have inspired a life-long love of animation that led me to work for the Walt Disney Company and later to edit countless books based on animated properties, it was Toy Story that made me truly excited to see what a new generation's legacy to the medium might be.
8.  Saving Private Ryan, 1998.  Why?  My dad would never talk about World War II.  He had survived the Battle at Normandy and had later seen unmentionable things in Dachau at the time of the liberation, so both this movie and Schindler's List spoke to him and to me in meaningful ways.  Spielberg articulated events for him so he didn't have to and so that the rest of us could truly understand.
9.  The Sixth Sense, 1999.  Why?  The unexpected is the best anyone can hope for in entertainment.  This movie delivered that in spades.  So what if we all felt a little manipulated later!  Kudos to Shyamalan for catching us with our guard down.
10.  The Passion of the Christ, 2004.  Why?  As an editor I think of the Old and New Testaments as the ultimate bestselling books.  Naturally, film adaptations of their stories in any form fascinate me.  What intrigued me most about this film was it's presentation in Latin, Aramaic and Hebrew with English subtitles.  In one way, it made us pay closer attention to the words as we had to read their translation.  In other ways, it underplayed the words and made us focus on the universality of the emotions.  What a truly enigmatic new way to approach this age-old material.

George Lucas's Blockbusting book creative editor Hope Innelli is a Vice President and Executive Editor with HarperCollins specializing in books on entertainment and popular culture.

Bob Canning Top 10 Movie Picks

1.  Casablanca, 1943.  Why?  C'mon, it's Casablanca, Bogie, Bergman - and "As time Goes By" - what's not to love?
2.  Double Indemnity, 1944.  Why?  Barbara Stanwyck gives such a deliciously devious and evil a performance in this Noir classic, it's the grandmammy of all femme fatale movies.
3.  It's a wonderful Life, 1945.  Why?  There have been moments in my life when I related to George Bailey when he was not feeling important or appreciated, and I still find myself getting misty-eyed each time I watch this movie.
4.  All About Eve, 1950.  Why?  As a produced playwright, this witty, cynical backstage story about a backstabbing actress always fascinated me, although I never experienced it in my lifetime - and hope I never do!
5.  Rear Window, 1954. Why?  The feeling of helplessness, claustrophobia and danger is so palpable every time I watch this film, I have to thank God that Alfred Hitchcock was so delightfully sadistic - and Raymond Burr was so menacing!
6.  Around the World in 80 Days, 1956.  Why?  I saw this film when I was very young and I was fascinated by the prospect of traveling by air balloon - and I still remember the audience oohing and ahhing at the scenery and gleefully responding to the cameo appearances by so many famous actors.
7.  Some Like It Hot, 1959.  Why?  This and Pillow Talk came out the same year (my favorite year) and both are still among my favorite all-time comedies.
8.  Lawrence of Arabia, 1962.  Why?  Every time I see this movie (to this day my #1 all-time favorite film), I get caught up with the vastness of the Sahara, the sweep of the story, the richness of the musical score, and the exotic locales and people.
9.  Dr. No, 1963.  Why?  When I heard that my childhood hero John F. Kennedy was very high on this book, I read it and felt the same way - and I've since read all the Bond books and have seen most of all the Bond movies.
10.  Jaws, 1975.  Why?  Just the music alone gets my heart pounding, since first seeing it I've preferred to swim in a pool rather than in the ocean.

Bob Canning is a San Francisco Bay Area produced playwright and screenwriter who spent 14 years as a copywriter at The Walt Disney Studios.

Scott Mazak Top 10 Movie Picks

1.  The Birth of a Nation, 1915.  Why?  Frankly, I don't care much for any specific Griffith film, but taken as a whole - best exemplified by this masterwork of cinematic experimentation - they stand as a kind of Rosetta Stone for the visual language of cinema we still use today.  The messages contained within that framework are always debatable, of course.
2.  Greed, 1924.  Why?  Epic and visually hypnotic, this film at times approaches pure poetry - the pinnacle of the form, in my opinion.  My favorite from Von Stroheim is Foolish Wives, but Greed - especially the ending - is quite fun to experience.
3.  City Lights, 1931.  Why?  This is pretty fun to watch.  It is also pure cinema as it should be - with each image building upon the last and propelling us into the next one, culminating in the prime moment of any film - the last image.  And in this case, it's pure visual poetry.
4.  Citizen Kane, 1941.  Why?  Frankly, in some ways, The Third Man is as much fun to watch visually as this, but Kane's story, themes and characters are more engrossing.  Still, the visual inventiveness in both is exhilarating at times.
5.  Psycho, 1960.  Why?  This is Hitchcock's best technical film by far.  Is it the most fun to watch?  Probably not, but for the pure visual/aural power of cinema, this is a filmmaker operating at his peak - the mise en scene, the sound and the camerawork in general all lead to continuous moments of pure cinematic power.  It's perhaps not so advisable to watch this slightly campy film as a horror film - this is film art, so study it with a microscope.
6.  Five Easy Pieces, 1970.  Why?  This is one of the great examples of the character study - a type of film I wish more filmmakers would make these days.  There were a number of these mildly unassuming yet dense portraits crafted during the 1960s and 1970s all over the world, but this one is uniquely American and a curious barometer of the psychological tone of a nation adrift.  Some of the images are absolutely sublime, and Nicholson's performance is possibly his best from his heyday, except for maybe The Passenger or Chinatown.
7.  The Exorcist, 1973.  Why?  Sure, the second half of this film might be a bit hysterical and silly, but the first half is so powerful, I like it anyway.  This is a very intense ride to take, and visually, it contains moments of pure poetry.  Many of the 1970s "pop culture blockbuster-establishing" films - like Jaws, Saturday Night Fever, A Clockwork Orange - could claim similar accolades.  However, this one reaches such visually poetic heights, I personally prefer it overall - even with the overblown second half.  It represents Friedkin hitting his stride as a filmmaker and an artist.
8.  Chinatown, 1973.  Why?  This is just damn fun to watch.  Polanski at his peak.  Nicholson at his peak.  Towne at his peak.  This represents a pinnacle of new Hollywood filmmaking merging with the old.  Visually, every frame is packed with info and gorgeous to look at - it may even approach the poetic at times.  At any rate, it's very fun to watch, dense and thoroughly engrossing.  A similarly dense and gorgeous film, The Godfather, is just as powerful in some ways - but Chinatown is a little tighter for my tastes.
9.  Annie Hall, 1977.  Why?  I think Manhattan is Allen's best film, but Annie Hall is very accessible, has one of the great characters in cinema history fully developed for the first time and is as visually inventive as anything he has done.  The writing is superior - the scene constructions, the dialogue and the measured way he paces the action all evince an artist hitting his peak, not just an entertainer.  Does this guy approach the master of all masters - Bunuel?  Almost!  Plus, he writes his own stuff and then acts it out!
10.  Raging Bull, 1980.  Why?  Clearly the pinnacle of Scorsese's work, this is a visual and thematic steamroller.  A truly American cultural artifact and work of art at the same time, this is what filmmaking is all about - many of the images and passages in the film approach the poetic.  It's a great character study, possibly matched only by Taxi Driver in his - and De Niro's - oeuvre.  However, it's a much more coherent and mature film (De Niro's Johnny Boy in Mean Streets is pretty amazing, too, by the way), so I find it a little more satisfying.

George Lucas's Blockbusting book feature film writer Scott Mazak is a San Francisco based writer and lecturer.